WesandClaude Sonnet 4.5
27afedb32e
Fetches SMART data from Scrutiny's InfluxDB and calculates failure probabilities using the exact BackBlaze tables from SnapRAID source. Key features: - Calculates both v12 (with attr 193) and v13 (without attr 193) algorithms - v12 matches SnapRAID pre-v13.0 (includes Load Cycle Count) - v13 matches modern SnapRAID v13.0+ (excludes Load Cycle Count) - Stores both values for trending and comparison - Correctly applies bit masks (16-bit for 187/188, 32-bit for others) - Annualizes monthly rates and applies Poisson distribution - Logs to PostgreSQL with device metadata Solved the mystery: SnapRAID v12 uses attribute 193 which was removed in v13.0. Load cycle count has massive impact on failure predictions for some drives (80% vs 4% difference). 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
284 lines
16 KiB
Python
284 lines
16 KiB
Python
"""
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BackBlaze SMART failure rate tables extracted from SnapRAID source code.
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Based on BackBlaze's 2014 dataset (47,322 disk observations).
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Tables contain 256 monthly failure rates, scaled to annual rates using: AFR = (365/30) * monthly_rate
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"""
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import math
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# SMART Attribute 5: Reallocated Sectors Count
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SMART_5_STEP = 1
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SMART_5_R = [
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0.0026, 0.0748, 0.0919, 0.1013, 0.1079, 0.1137, 0.1194, 0.1235, 0.1301, 0.1398,
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0.1453, 0.1490, 0.1528, 0.1566, 0.1595, 0.1635, 0.1656, 0.1701, 0.1718, 0.1740,
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0.1762, 0.1787, 0.1808, 0.1833, 0.1858, 0.1885, 0.1901, 0.1915, 0.1934, 0.1958,
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0.1975, 0.1993, 0.2014, 0.2048, 0.2068, 0.2088, 0.2109, 0.2120, 0.2137, 0.2160,
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0.2173, 0.2214, 0.2226, 0.2237, 0.2262, 0.2277, 0.2292, 0.2304, 0.2338, 0.2369,
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0.2381, 0.2396, 0.2411, 0.2427, 0.2445, 0.2462, 0.2472, 0.2488, 0.2496, 0.2504,
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0.2514, 0.2525, 0.2535, 0.2544, 0.2554, 0.2571, 0.2583, 0.2601, 0.2622, 0.2631,
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0.2635, 0.2644, 0.2659, 0.2675, 0.2682, 0.2692, 0.2701, 0.2707, 0.2712, 0.2726,
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0.2745, 0.2767, 0.2778, 0.2784, 0.2800, 0.2814, 0.2834, 0.2839, 0.2851, 0.2877,
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0.2883, 0.2891, 0.2900, 0.2907, 0.2916, 0.2934, 0.2950, 0.2969, 0.2975, 0.2983,
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0.2999, 0.3006, 0.3013, 0.3021, 0.3033, 0.3054, 0.3066, 0.3074, 0.3082, 0.3094,
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0.3106, 0.3112, 0.3120, 0.3137, 0.3141, 0.3145, 0.3151, 0.3159, 0.3169, 0.3174,
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0.3181, 0.3194, 0.3215, 0.3219, 0.3231, 0.3234, 0.3237, 0.3242, 0.3255, 0.3270,
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0.3283, 0.3286, 0.3289, 0.3304, 0.3315, 0.3322, 0.3347, 0.3361, 0.3382, 0.3384,
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0.3395, 0.3398, 0.3401, 0.3405, 0.3411, 0.3431, 0.3435, 0.3442, 0.3447, 0.3450,
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0.3455, 0.3464, 0.3472, 0.3486, 0.3497, 0.3501, 0.3509, 0.3517, 0.3531, 0.3535,
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0.3540, 0.3565, 0.3569, 0.3576, 0.3579, 0.3584, 0.3590, 0.3594, 0.3599, 0.3621,
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0.3627, 0.3642, 0.3649, 0.3655, 0.3658, 0.3667, 0.3683, 0.3699, 0.3704, 0.3707,
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0.3711, 0.3715, 0.3718, 0.3721, 0.3727, 0.3740, 0.3744, 0.3748, 0.3753, 0.3756,
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0.3761, 0.3766, 0.3775, 0.3794, 0.3801, 0.3804, 0.3813, 0.3817, 0.3823, 0.3831,
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0.3847, 0.3875, 0.3881, 0.3886, 0.3890, 0.3893, 0.3896, 0.3900, 0.3907, 0.3923,
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0.3925, 0.3933, 0.3936, 0.3961, 0.3971, 0.3981, 0.3989, 0.4007, 0.4012, 0.4018,
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0.4023, 0.4027, 0.4041, 0.4048, 0.4056, 0.4073, 0.4079, 0.4086, 0.4104, 0.4107,
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0.4109, 0.4112, 0.4118, 0.4133, 0.4139, 0.4144, 0.4146, 0.4148, 0.4164, 0.4165,
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0.4174, 0.4191, 0.4197, 0.4201, 0.4204, 0.4210, 0.4213, 0.4216, 0.4221, 0.4231,
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0.4235, 0.4237, 0.4239, 0.4241, 0.4244, 0.4249,
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]
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# SMART Attribute 187: Reported Uncorrectable Errors
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SMART_187_STEP = 1
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SMART_187_R = [
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0.0039, 0.1287, 0.1579, 0.1776, 0.1905, 0.2013, 0.2226, 0.3263, 0.3612, 0.3869,
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0.4086, 0.4292, 0.4559, 0.5278, 0.5593, 0.5847, 0.6124, 0.6345, 0.6517, 0.6995,
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0.7308, 0.7541, 0.7814, 0.8122, 0.8306, 0.8839, 0.9100, 0.9505, 0.9906, 1.0254,
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1.0483, 1.1060, 1.1280, 1.1624, 1.1895, 1.2138, 1.2452, 1.2864, 1.3120, 1.3369,
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1.3705, 1.3894, 1.4055, 1.4218, 1.4434, 1.4670, 1.4834, 1.4993, 1.5174, 1.5400,
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1.5572, 1.5689, 1.5808, 1.6198, 1.6346, 1.6405, 1.6570, 1.6618, 1.6755, 1.6877,
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1.7100, 1.7258, 1.7347, 1.7814, 1.7992, 1.8126, 1.8225, 1.8269, 1.8341, 1.8463,
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1.8765, 1.8850, 1.9005, 1.9281, 1.9398, 1.9618, 1.9702, 1.9905, 2.0099, 2.0480,
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2.0565, 2.0611, 2.0709, 2.0846, 2.0895, 2.0958, 2.1008, 2.1055, 2.1097, 2.1235,
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2.1564, 2.1737, 2.1956, 2.1989, 2.2015, 2.2148, 2.2355, 2.2769, 2.2940, 2.3045,
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2.3096, 2.3139, 2.3344, 2.3669, 2.3779, 2.3941, 2.4036, 2.4396, 2.4473, 2.4525,
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2.4656, 2.4762, 2.4787, 2.5672, 2.5732, 2.5755, 2.5794, 2.5886, 2.6100, 2.6144,
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2.6341, 2.6614, 2.6679, 2.6796, 2.6847, 2.6872, 2.6910, 2.6934, 2.6995, 2.7110,
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2.7179, 2.7204, 2.7232, 2.7282, 2.7355, 2.7375, 2.7422, 2.7558, 2.7580, 2.7643,
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2.7767, 2.7770, 2.8016, 2.9292, 2.9294, 2.9337, 2.9364, 2.9409, 2.9436, 2.9457,
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2.9466, 2.9498, 2.9543, 2.9570, 2.9573, 2.9663, 2.9708, 2.9833, 2.9859, 2.9895,
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2.9907, 2.9932, 2.9935, 3.0021, 3.0035, 3.0079, 3.0103, 3.0126, 3.0151, 3.0266,
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3.0288, 3.0320, 3.0330, 3.0343, 3.0373, 3.0387, 3.0438, 3.0570, 3.0579, 3.0616,
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3.0655, 3.0728, 3.0771, 3.0794, 3.0799, 3.0812, 3.1769, 3.1805, 3.1819, 3.1860,
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3.1869, 3.2004, 3.2016, 3.2025, 3.2070, 3.2129, 3.2173, 3.2205, 3.2254, 3.2263,
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3.2300, 3.2413, 3.2543, 3.2580, 3.2595, 3.2611, 3.2624, 3.2787, 3.2798, 3.2809,
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3.2823, 3.2833, 3.2834, 3.2853, 3.2866, 3.3332, 3.3580, 3.3595, 3.3625, 3.3631,
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3.3667, 3.3702, 3.3737, 3.3742, 3.3747, 3.3769, 3.3775, 3.3791, 3.3809, 3.3813,
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3.3814, 3.3822, 3.3827, 3.3828, 3.3833, 3.3833, 3.3843, 3.3882, 3.3963, 3.4047,
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3.4057, 3.4213, 3.4218, 3.4230, 3.4231, 3.4240, 3.4262, 3.4283, 3.4283, 3.4288,
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3.4293, 3.4302, 3.4317, 3.4478, 3.4486, 3.4520,
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]
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# SMART Attribute 188: Command Timeout
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SMART_188_STEP = 1
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SMART_188_R = [
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0.0025, 0.0129, 0.0182, 0.0215, 0.0236, 0.0257, 0.0279, 0.0308, 0.0341, 0.0382,
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0.0430, 0.0491, 0.0565, 0.0658, 0.0770, 0.0906, 0.1037, 0.1197, 0.1355, 0.1525,
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0.1686, 0.1864, 0.2011, 0.2157, 0.2281, 0.2404, 0.2505, 0.2591, 0.2676, 0.2766,
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0.2827, 0.2913, 0.2999, 0.3100, 0.3185, 0.3298, 0.3361, 0.3446, 0.3506, 0.3665,
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0.3699, 0.3820, 0.3890, 0.4059, 0.4108, 0.4255, 0.4290, 0.4424, 0.4473, 0.4617,
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0.4667, 0.4770, 0.4829, 0.4977, 0.4997, 0.5102, 0.5137, 0.5283, 0.5316, 0.5428,
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0.5480, 0.5597, 0.5634, 0.5791, 0.5826, 0.5929, 0.5945, 0.6025, 0.6102, 0.6175,
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0.6245, 0.6313, 0.6421, 0.6468, 0.6497, 0.6557, 0.6570, 0.6647, 0.6698, 0.6769,
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0.6849, 0.6884, 0.6925, 0.7025, 0.7073, 0.7161, 0.7223, 0.7256, 0.7280, 0.7411,
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0.7445, 0.7530, 0.7628, 0.7755, 0.7900, 0.8006, 0.8050, 0.8098, 0.8132, 0.8192,
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0.8230, 0.8293, 0.8356, 0.8440, 0.8491, 0.8672, 0.8766, 0.8907, 0.8934, 0.8992,
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0.9062, 0.9111, 0.9209, 0.9290, 0.9329, 0.9378, 0.9385, 0.9402, 0.9427, 0.9448,
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0.9459, 0.9568, 0.9626, 0.9628, 0.9730, 0.9765, 0.9797, 0.9825, 0.9873, 0.9902,
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0.9926, 0.9991, 1.0031, 1.0044, 1.0062, 1.0120, 1.0148, 1.0188, 1.0218, 1.0231,
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1.0249, 1.0277, 1.0335, 1.0355, 1.0417, 1.0467, 1.0474, 1.0510, 1.0529, 1.0532,
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1.0562, 1.0610, 1.0702, 1.0708, 1.0800, 1.0804, 1.0845, 1.1120, 1.1191, 1.1225,
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1.1264, 1.1265, 1.1335, 1.1347, 1.1479, 1.1479, 1.1519, 1.1545, 1.1645, 1.1646,
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1.1647, 1.1649, 1.1678, 1.1713, 1.1723, 1.1733, 1.1736, 1.1736, 1.1738, 1.1739,
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1.1739, 1.1741, 1.1741, 1.1746, 1.1746, 1.1748, 1.1750, 1.1760, 1.1794, 1.1854,
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1.1908, 1.1912, 1.1912, 1.1971, 1.2033, 1.2033, 1.2120, 1.2166, 1.2185, 1.2185,
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1.2189, 1.2211, 1.2226, 1.2234, 1.2320, 1.2345, 1.2345, 1.2347, 1.2350, 1.2350,
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1.2407, 1.2408, 1.2408, 1.2408, 1.2409, 1.2460, 1.2518, 1.2519, 1.2519, 1.2519,
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1.2520, 1.2520, 1.2521, 1.2521, 1.2521, 1.2593, 1.2745, 1.2760, 1.2772, 1.2831,
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1.2833, 1.2890, 1.2906, 1.3166, 1.3201, 1.3202, 1.3202, 1.3202, 1.3204, 1.3204,
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1.3314, 1.3422, 1.3423, 1.3441, 1.3491, 1.3583, 1.3602, 1.3606, 1.3636, 1.3650,
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1.3661, 1.3703, 1.3708, 1.3716, 1.3730, 1.3731,
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]
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# SMART Attribute 197: Current Pending Sector Count
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SMART_197_STEP = 1
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SMART_197_R = [
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0.0028, 0.2972, 0.3883, 0.4363, 0.4644, 0.4813, 0.4948, 0.5051, 0.5499, 0.8535,
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0.8678, 0.8767, 0.8882, 0.8933, 0.9012, 0.9076, 0.9368, 1.1946, 1.2000, 1.2110,
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1.2177, 1.2305, 1.2385, 1.2447, 1.2699, 1.4713, 1.4771, 1.4802, 1.4887, 1.5292,
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1.5384, 1.5442, 1.5645, 1.7700, 1.7755, 1.7778, 1.7899, 1.7912, 1.7991, 1.7998,
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1.8090, 1.9974, 1.9992, 2.0088, 2.0132, 2.0146, 2.0161, 2.0171, 2.0273, 2.1845,
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2.1866, 2.1877, 2.1900, 2.1922, 2.1944, 2.1974, 2.2091, 2.3432, 2.3459, 2.3463,
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2.3468, 2.3496, 2.3503, 2.3533, 2.3593, 2.4604, 2.4606, 2.4609, 2.4612, 2.4620,
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2.4626, 2.4638, 2.4689, 2.5575, 2.5581, 2.5586, 2.5586, 2.5588, 2.5602, 2.5602,
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2.5648, 2.6769, 2.6769, 2.6769, 2.6794, 2.6805, 2.6811, 2.6814, 2.6862, 2.7742,
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2.7755, 2.7771, 2.7780, 2.7790, 2.7797, 2.7807, 2.7871, 2.9466, 2.9478, 2.9492,
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2.9612, 2.9618, 2.9624, 2.9628, 2.9669, 3.1467, 3.1481, 3.1494, 3.1499, 3.1504,
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3.1507, 3.1509, 3.1532, 3.2675, 3.2681, 3.2703, 3.2712, 3.2714, 3.2726, 3.2726,
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3.2743, 3.3376, 3.3379, 3.3382, 3.3397, 3.3403, 3.3410, 3.3410, 3.3429, 3.4052,
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3.4052, 3.4052, 3.4052, 3.4052, 3.4053, 3.4053, 3.4075, 3.4616, 3.4616, 3.4616,
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3.4616, 3.4616, 3.4616, 3.4620, 3.4634, 3.4975, 3.4975, 3.4975, 3.4975, 3.4979,
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3.4979, 3.4979, 3.4998, 3.5489, 3.5489, 3.5489, 3.5489, 3.5489, 3.5493, 3.5497,
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3.5512, 3.5827, 3.5828, 3.5828, 3.5828, 3.5828, 3.5828, 3.5828, 3.5844, 3.6251,
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3.6251, 3.6251, 3.6267, 3.6267, 3.6271, 3.6271, 3.6279, 3.6562, 3.6562, 3.6563,
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3.7206, 3.7242, 3.7332, 3.7332, 3.7346, 3.7548, 3.7548, 3.7553, 3.7576, 3.7581,
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3.7586, 3.7587, 3.7600, 3.7773, 3.7812, 3.7836, 3.7841, 3.7842, 3.7851, 3.7856,
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3.7876, 3.8890, 3.8890, 3.8890, 3.8890, 3.8890, 3.8890, 3.8890, 3.8897, 3.9111,
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3.9114, 3.9114, 3.9114, 3.9114, 3.9114, 3.9114, 3.9126, 3.9440, 3.9440, 3.9440,
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3.9440, 3.9440, 3.9498, 3.9498, 3.9509, 3.9783, 3.9783, 3.9784, 3.9784, 3.9784,
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3.9784, 4.0012, 4.0019, 4.0406, 4.0413, 4.0413, 4.0413, 4.0413, 4.0414, 4.0414,
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4.0421, 4.0552, 4.0552, 4.0558, 4.0558, 4.0558, 4.0558, 4.0558, 4.0563, 4.0753,
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4.0753, 4.0760, 4.1131, 4.1131, 4.1131, 4.1131,
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]
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# SMART Attribute 193: Load Cycle Count (removed in SnapRAID v13.0)
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# Included for compatibility with older SnapRAID versions
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SMART_193_STEP = 649
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SMART_193_R = [
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0.0000, 0.0016, 0.0032, 0.0036, 0.0039,
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0.0042, 0.0046, 0.0049, 0.0052, 0.0054,
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0.0057, 0.0060, 0.0062, 0.0065, 0.0068,
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0.0071, 0.0074, 0.0077, 0.0080, 0.0083,
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0.0086, 0.0091, 0.0094, 0.0098, 0.0101,
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0.0104, 0.0108, 0.0111, 0.0119, 0.0122,
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0.0127, 0.0130, 0.0134, 0.0137, 0.0141,
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0.0144, 0.0146, 0.0152, 0.0155, 0.0159,
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0.0163, 0.0165, 0.0168, 0.0172, 0.0176,
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0.0179, 0.0184, 0.0188, 0.0190, 0.0194,
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0.0197, 0.0201, 0.0204, 0.0207, 0.0209,
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0.0213, 0.0215, 0.0219, 0.0221, 0.0225,
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0.0229, 0.0234, 0.0241, 0.0246, 0.0253,
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0.0263, 0.0278, 0.0286, 0.0293, 0.0298,
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0.0302, 0.0306, 0.0311, 0.0315, 0.0319,
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0.0322, 0.0329, 0.0334, 0.0338, 0.0343,
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0.0348, 0.0352, 0.0358, 0.0362, 0.0367,
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0.0371, 0.0374, 0.0378, 0.0383, 0.0388,
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0.0393, 0.0397, 0.0401, 0.0404, 0.0410,
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0.0416, 0.0422, 0.0428, 0.0436, 0.0443,
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0.0449, 0.0454, 0.0457, 0.0462, 0.0468,
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0.0473, 0.0479, 0.0483, 0.0488, 0.0491,
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0.0493, 0.0497, 0.0500, 0.0504, 0.0507,
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0.0510, 0.0514, 0.0519, 0.0523, 0.0528,
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0.0533, 0.0538, 0.0542, 0.0547, 0.0551,
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0.0556, 0.0560, 0.0565, 0.0572, 0.0577,
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0.0584, 0.0590, 0.0594, 0.0599, 0.0603,
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0.0607, 0.0611, 0.0616, 0.0621, 0.0626,
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0.0632, 0.0639, 0.0647, 0.0655, 0.0661,
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0.0669, 0.0676, 0.0683, 0.0691, 0.0699,
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0.0708, 0.0713, 0.0719, 0.0724, 0.0730,
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0.0736, 0.0745, 0.0751, 0.0759, 0.0769,
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0.0779, 0.0787, 0.0796, 0.0804, 0.0815,
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0.0825, 0.0833, 0.0840, 0.0847, 0.0854,
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0.0859, 0.0865, 0.0873, 0.0881, 0.0890,
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0.0900, 0.0912, 0.0919, 0.0929, 0.0942,
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0.0956, 0.0965, 0.0976, 0.0986, 0.0995,
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0.1006, 0.1019, 0.1031, 0.1038, 0.1045,
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0.1051, 0.1058, 0.1066, 0.1072, 0.1077,
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0.1084, 0.1091, 0.1099, 0.1104, 0.1111,
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0.1118, 0.1127, 0.1135, 0.1142, 0.1149,
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0.1157, 0.1163, 0.1168, 0.1173, 0.1179,
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0.1184, 0.1189, 0.1195, 0.1203, 0.1208,
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0.1213, 0.1223, 0.1231, 0.1240, 0.1246,
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0.1252, 0.1260, 0.1269, 0.1276, 0.1287,
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0.1303, 0.1311, 0.1319, 0.1328, 0.1335,
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0.1341, 0.1348, 0.1362, 0.1373, 0.1380,
|
|
0.1387, 0.1392, 0.1398, 0.1403, 0.1408,
|
|
0.1412, 0.1418, 0.1422, 0.1428, 0.1434,
|
|
0.1439, 0.1445, 0.1451, 0.1457, 0.1464,
|
|
0.1469, 0.1475, 0.1480, 0.1486, 0.1491,
|
|
0.1498,
|
|
]
|
|
|
|
# SMART Attribute 198: Offline Uncorrectable Sector Count
|
|
SMART_198_STEP = 1
|
|
SMART_198_R = [
|
|
0.0030, 0.5479, 0.5807, 0.5949, 0.6046, 0.6086, 0.6139, 0.6224, 0.6639, 1.0308,
|
|
1.0329, 1.0364, 1.0371, 1.0387, 1.0399, 1.0421, 1.0675, 1.3730, 1.3733, 1.3741,
|
|
1.3741, 1.3752, 1.3794, 1.3800, 1.3985, 1.6291, 1.6303, 1.6309, 1.6352, 1.6384,
|
|
1.6448, 1.6464, 1.6645, 1.8949, 1.8951, 1.8962, 1.9073, 1.9073, 1.9152, 1.9161,
|
|
1.9240, 2.1308, 2.1315, 2.1328, 2.1328, 2.1328, 2.1328, 2.1329, 2.1439, 2.3203,
|
|
2.3205, 2.3205, 2.3205, 2.3205, 2.3205, 2.3205, 2.3265, 2.4729, 2.4729, 2.4729,
|
|
2.4729, 2.4729, 2.4729, 2.4729, 2.4778, 2.5900, 2.5900, 2.5901, 2.5901, 2.5901,
|
|
2.5901, 2.5901, 2.5949, 2.6964, 2.6965, 2.6965, 2.6965, 2.6965, 2.6965, 2.6965,
|
|
2.7010, 2.8328, 2.8328, 2.8328, 2.8329, 2.8329, 2.8329, 2.8329, 2.8366, 2.9405,
|
|
2.9405, 2.9405, 2.9405, 2.9405, 2.9405, 2.9405, 2.9442, 3.1344, 3.1344, 3.1346,
|
|
3.1463, 3.1463, 3.1463, 3.1463, 3.1493, 3.3076, 3.3076, 3.3076, 3.3076, 3.3076,
|
|
3.3077, 3.3077, 3.3097, 3.4456, 3.4456, 3.4456, 3.4456, 3.4456, 3.4456, 3.4456,
|
|
3.4473, 3.5236, 3.5236, 3.5236, 3.5236, 3.5236, 3.5236, 3.5236, 3.5249, 3.6004,
|
|
3.6004, 3.6004, 3.6004, 3.6004, 3.6004, 3.6004, 3.6026, 3.6684, 3.6684, 3.6684,
|
|
3.6684, 3.6684, 3.6684, 3.6684, 3.6697, 3.7121, 3.7121, 3.7121, 3.7121, 3.7121,
|
|
3.7121, 3.7121, 3.7136, 3.7744, 3.7744, 3.7744, 3.7744, 3.7744, 3.7745, 3.7745,
|
|
3.7756, 3.8151, 3.8151, 3.8151, 3.8151, 3.8151, 3.8151, 3.8151, 3.8163, 3.8673,
|
|
3.8673, 3.8673, 3.8673, 3.8673, 3.8673, 3.8673, 3.8680, 3.9044, 3.9044, 3.9044,
|
|
3.9044, 3.9044, 3.9044, 3.9044, 3.9056, 3.9297, 3.9297, 3.9297, 3.9297, 3.9297,
|
|
3.9297, 3.9297, 3.9305, 3.9494, 3.9494, 3.9494, 3.9494, 3.9494, 3.9494, 3.9494,
|
|
3.9514, 4.0725, 4.0725, 4.0725, 4.0725, 4.0725, 4.0725, 4.0725, 4.0731, 4.0990,
|
|
4.0993, 4.0993, 4.0993, 4.0993, 4.0993, 4.0993, 4.1004, 4.1385, 4.1385, 4.1385,
|
|
4.1386, 4.1386, 4.1387, 4.1387, 4.1398, 4.1732, 4.2284, 4.2284, 4.2284, 4.2284,
|
|
4.2284, 4.2284, 4.2290, 4.2781, 4.2781, 4.2963, 4.2963, 4.2963, 4.2963, 4.2963,
|
|
4.2971, 4.3141, 4.3141, 4.3141, 4.3141, 4.3141, 4.3141, 4.3141, 4.3146, 4.3393,
|
|
4.3393, 4.3393, 4.3393, 4.3393, 4.3393, 4.3393,
|
|
]
|
|
|
|
|
|
def calculate_afr(smart_attributes: dict, is_seagate: bool = False, include_193: bool = False) -> float:
|
|
"""
|
|
Calculate Annual Failure Rate (AFR) based on SMART attributes.
|
|
|
|
Uses BackBlaze dataset to predict 1-year failure probability.
|
|
Returns the maximum AFR across all relevant SMART attributes.
|
|
|
|
Args:
|
|
smart_attributes: Dict mapping SMART attribute IDs to their values
|
|
is_seagate: Whether this is a Seagate disk (affects attr 188 handling)
|
|
include_193: Include attribute 193 (Load Cycle Count) for SnapRAID pre-v13.0 compatibility
|
|
|
|
Returns:
|
|
AFR as a decimal (e.g., 0.81 for 81%)
|
|
"""
|
|
afr_values = []
|
|
|
|
# Helper function to get AFR from a table
|
|
def get_afr_from_table(attr_id: int, table: list, step: int) -> float:
|
|
if attr_id not in smart_attributes:
|
|
return 0.0
|
|
|
|
value = smart_attributes[attr_id]
|
|
index = min(value // step, len(table) - 1)
|
|
monthly_rate = table[index]
|
|
# Annualize: convert monthly to annual (like SnapRAID does)
|
|
return (365.0 / 30.0) * monthly_rate
|
|
|
|
# Check each attribute
|
|
afr_values.append(get_afr_from_table(5, SMART_5_R, SMART_5_STEP))
|
|
afr_values.append(get_afr_from_table(187, SMART_187_R, SMART_187_STEP))
|
|
|
|
# Exclude attribute 188 for Seagate disks (false positives on SMR/IronWolf)
|
|
if not is_seagate:
|
|
afr_values.append(get_afr_from_table(188, SMART_188_R, SMART_188_STEP))
|
|
|
|
# Attribute 193 (Load Cycle Count) - removed in SnapRAID v13.0
|
|
# Include for compatibility with older SnapRAID versions
|
|
if include_193:
|
|
afr_values.append(get_afr_from_table(193, SMART_193_R, SMART_193_STEP))
|
|
|
|
afr_values.append(get_afr_from_table(197, SMART_197_R, SMART_197_STEP))
|
|
afr_values.append(get_afr_from_table(198, SMART_198_R, SMART_198_STEP))
|
|
|
|
# Return the maximum AFR (attributes are correlated, not independent)
|
|
return max(afr_values) if afr_values else 0.0
|
|
|
|
|
|
def afr_to_failure_probability(afr: float) -> float:
|
|
"""
|
|
Convert Annual Failure Rate to failure probability using Poisson distribution.
|
|
|
|
SnapRAID uses: P(at least 1 failure) = 1 - e^(-AFR)
|
|
|
|
Args:
|
|
afr: Annual Failure Rate (e.g., 1.64 for high risk)
|
|
|
|
Returns:
|
|
Failure probability as a decimal (e.g., 0.806 for 80.6%)
|
|
"""
|
|
return 1.0 - math.exp(-afr)
|